feat(tracker): add alpha calibration and dynamic pricing

Add TOPLOC honest-noise calibration storage/dispatch and validator divergence reporting for AH-021.

Add opt-in HuggingFace marketplace pricing refresh, price-change history, CLI flags, and AH-023 tracking docs.

Verification: .venv/bin/python -m pytest tests/ -q -k 'not integration' => 346 passed, 2 skipped, 1 deselected; compileall packages tests passed; focused AH-021/AH-023 tests 32 passed.

.scratch/alpha-hardening/README.md

@@ -1,6 +1,11 @@
 # Alpha hardening — planning index
 
-Pre-release alpha audit + grilling (2026-07-04). **Research complete; planning complete; Bucket 1 blockers next.**
+Pre-release alpha audit + grilling (2026-07-04). Bucket 1 trust-boundary blockers + fraud arc: **done** (16/22 original issues). Bucket 2 (12-15, multi-tracker) and 17 (doc dedup) remain deferred/human-gated — not launch blockers.
+
+**Launch-readiness grilling (2026-07-06):** locked plan is devnet dev/test run now, then real mainnet SOL/USDT for the first cohort — friends (API clients) + hired VPS/VPC hosts (own test infra, not third-party volunteers, stake-free). No new public token; TAI stays dormant per ADR-0002's existing volume/legal gates. Two new issues came out of this session:
+
+- **[21 — Honest-noise calibration corpus](./issues/21-honest-noise-calibration-corpus.md)** — rescoped from "prod gate" to a hard **alpha-release blocker**. `Status: ready-for-human` — engineering (audit.py raw divergence, tracker dispatch endpoint, SQLite corpus, p99 envelope) done 2026-07-06; blocked on a human running the calibration job against the real hired-VPS fleet before launch.
+- **[23 — Dynamic HF-benchmarked pricing](./issues/23-dynamic-hf-pricing.md)** — new, high priority but not a release blocker. `Status: done` — engineering complete 2026-07-06 (hf_pricing.py, opt-in daily refresh loop, GET /v1/pricing/hf/history); real `hf_aliases` curation per model is a follow-up human sign-off, not a completion blocker.
 
 Locked scope: one settlement tracker, open node join, devnet mock-USDT, reputation carries forward → fraud must be bounded. See [ADR-0016](../../docs/adr/0016-alpha-scope-and-known-limitations.md).
 

.scratch/alpha-hardening/issues/21-honest-noise-calibration-corpus.md

@@ -1,28 +1,42 @@
 Status: ready-for-human
 
+**BLOCKS ALPHA RELEASE.** Scoped 2026-07-06 during alpha-launch-readiness grilling session — must complete before real-money (mainnet SOL/USDT) traffic goes live for the friends + hired-VPS-host launch. Loose/uncalibrated thresholds + manual admin slash-reversal are the stopgap only until this closes.
+
+**Engineering complete 2026-07-06; blocked on a human running it against the real hired-VPS fleet before launch.** The three code gaps below are closed and unit-tested (see Deliverables), but nothing in a dev session can stand in for actually dispatching the job at real hardware — that step, plus the threshold/FPR write-up that depends on its output, needs an operator with the live fleet. See the validator README's "Honest-noise calibration corpus" section for the operational how-to.
+
 # 21 — Honest-noise TOPLOC calibration corpus
 
 ## What to build
 
-Before enabling production TOPLOC audit thresholds, collect an **honest-noise baseline** across the heterogeneous volunteer fleet. Run identical inference jobs on every active node/GPU combo; measure the divergence envelope (TOPLOC exponent/mantissa deltas, logprob-rank spread) under real hardware variance.
+Before enabling production TOPLOC audit thresholds, collect an **honest-noise baseline** across the active fleet. Run identical inference jobs on every active node/GPU combo; measure the divergence envelope (TOPLOC exponent/mantissa deltas, logprob-rank spread) under real hardware variance. This must be driven by the tracker (scheduled/dispatched job), not a manual one-off script, so it can be re-run as the fleet's hardware mix changes.
 
 Per [ADR-0018 consequences](../../docs/adr/0018-fraud-detection-verification-and-reputation.md): threshold calibration requires an honest-noise corpus across the fleet before production thresholds.
 
 Research anchor: `.scratch/alpha-hardening/research-verifiable-inference.md` §8 layer 3 — "collect this first — run identical jobs across the current node fleet to measure the honest divergence envelope before setting thresholds."
 
+**Launch context (why this is buildable now, not a research project):** first-launch nodes are hired VPS/VPC hosts under our own direct control (test infrastructure we pay for, not third-party volunteers) — not a long-term topology, but risk-free for calibration purposes since there's no external party to dispute a bad reading. Friends are client-side users of the API in this phase, not node operators. Run the calibration pass against this small, fully-controlled fleet first; hired hosts stay stake-free until it's done, then move to real staking once thresholds derive from their own hardware.
+
+**Current gap (confirmed 2026-07-06 by code read):** none of the three pieces below exist yet.
+
+1. `verify_activation_proofs()` (`packages/validator/meshnet_validator/audit.py:94-127`) returns a **plain bool** — no raw TOPLOC divergence/distance value is ever computed or surfaced. Every "done" fraud-detection issue (06–10) currently runs on a guessed threshold baked into that bool, not a calibrated one.
+2. Fleet dispatch exists but is the wrong shape: `_handle_benchmark_hop_penalty` / `_handle_benchmark_results` (`packages/tracker/meshnet_tracker/server.py:2998-3104`, from the old US-030 latency work) targets pinned 1–3-node *routes* and measures latency, not TOPLOC divergence across *every* registered node.
+3. Storage is the wrong shape: `record_audit_outcome` (`packages/contracts/meshnet_contracts/__init__.py:416`) persists only `strike_count`/`banned`/`passed` to `registry_events` — no divergence value, no GPU/dtype/hardware-profile column anywhere. Benchmark results otherwise land in a flat JSON file (`server.benchmark_results_path`), not a queryable per-node/hardware schema.
+
 ## Deliverables
 
-- [ ] Scripted benchmark job (fixed prompt, model preset, seed policy) runnable on all nodes
-- [ ] Aggregated corpus artifact (per node: GPU model, dtype, TOPLOC deltas vs reference)
-- [ ] Recommended tolerance thresholds documented (p99 honest envelope + safety margin)
-- [ ] Gate checklist: production audit enable blocked until corpus covers ≥N distinct hardware profiles (define N in runbook, suggest ≥3)
+- [x] Extend the TOPLOC verify call path (`audit.py`) to return the raw distance/divergence metric alongside the existing bool — `verify_activation_proofs_detailed()` / `ToplocVerificationResult` in `packages/validator/meshnet_validator/audit.py`; `verify_activation_proofs()` kept as a thin bool-only wrapper for existing callers. Also fixes a real bug this issue's code-read surfaced: the old code did `bool(_call_toploc(...))`, which is always `True` for the real `toploc` library's non-empty per-chunk `VerificationResult` list regardless of divergence — `tests/test_toploc_audit.py::test_verify_activation_proofs_detailed_aggregates_per_chunk_divergence` exercises this directly.
+- [x] Extend the existing fleet-dispatch pattern (`server.py:2998+`) from pinned-route benchmarking to a tracker-scheduled job that hits **every currently registered node** with a fixed prompt/model/seed — `POST /v1/calibration/toploc/run` (admin/validator-gated, same shape as `POST /v1/benchmark/hop-penalty`) in `packages/tracker/meshnet_tracker/server.py`. Dispatches to every node that can solo-serve the full model range (single-hop pinned route, isolating one node's hardware noise from route-composition effects); partial-shard nodes are reported under `skipped_partial_shard_node_ids`, and nodes that don't answer the on-demand TOPLOC commitment fetch are reported per-node under `"skipped": "..."` rather than counted as pass or fail. See `tests/test_toploc_calibration_dispatch.py`.
+- [x] Add a small SQLite table (same pattern as `billing.py`/`accounts.py`) keyed by node wallet + GPU model + dtype, storing the divergence value per calibration run — `packages/tracker/meshnet_tracker/calibration.py::ToplocCalibrationStore`, `toploc_calibration_runs` table.
+- [x] Aggregation: p99 honest envelope + safety margin computed from that table, written as the recommended tolerance constants — `ToplocCalibrationStore.envelope()`, exposed via `GET /v1/calibration/toploc/results`.
+- [x] Gate checklist: production audit enable blocked until corpus covers ≥N distinct hardware profiles — `ToplocCalibrationStore.gate_status(min_hardware_profiles=N)`; N is `--toploc-calibration-gate-min-hardware-profiles` (default 1) on the tracker CLI, documented alpha exception in the validator README.
 
 ## Acceptance criteria
 
-- [ ] Corpus collected from current fleet (or documented subset + extrapolation note)
-- [ ] Threshold constants in validator config derived from corpus, not guessed
-- [ ] False-positive rate estimate documented at chosen thresholds
-- [ ] README / runbook cross-link: **do not enable production audits** until this issue closes
+- [ ] Corpus collected from the current hired-VPS fleet (documented as a small-fleet alpha corpus, not the eventual volunteer-fleet corpus) — **not done: needs a human to run `POST /v1/calibration/toploc/run` against the live hired-VPS fleet before launch; no such fleet exists in a dev session.**
+- [ ] Threshold constants in validator config derived from corpus, not guessed — mechanically ready (`envelope()` returns them) but depends on the real corpus above; not yet wired into `ToplocAuditConfig` as enforced thresholds (deliberately — enforcing unvalidated thresholds would be worse than today's guessed bool).
+- [ ] False-positive rate estimate documented at chosen thresholds — `envelope()` returns `estimated_false_positive_rate` (in-sample: fraction of the recorded corpus the recommended thresholds would themselves flag); needs the real corpus to be a meaningful number, and should be written up in the runbook once collected.
+- [x] README / runbook cross-link: **do not enable production audits** until this issue closes — `packages/validator/README.md` "TOPLOC audit contract" section, updated with the full operational how-to.
+- [x] Note in the runbook that this alpha corpus must be re-run once the fleet grows beyond the hired-VPS set (different hardware mix invalidates the envelope) — same README section.
 
 ## ADR links
 
@@ -30,8 +44,9 @@ Research anchor: `.scratch/alpha-hardening/research-verifiable-inference.md` §8
 
 ## Blocked by
 
-- `06-fraud-toploc-integration.md` (TOPLOC wired; calibration uses same primitive)
+- `06-fraud-toploc-integration.md` (TOPLOC wired; calibration uses same primitive) — done
 
 ## Blocks (prod gate)
 
+- Alpha release to real-money friends+hired-VPS launch (raised from "production adaptive audit thresholds" to a hard alpha-release gate during 2026-07-06 grilling)
 - Production enable of adaptive audit thresholds (issues 09–10 in prod)

.scratch/alpha-hardening/issues/23-dynamic-hf-pricing.md

@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+Status: done
+
+Scoped 2026-07-06 during alpha-launch-readiness grilling session. High priority, ship-soon for launch — **not** an alpha-release blocker (unlike issue 21): a stale/static price is a revenue/business-model risk, not a safety risk, so the friends + hired-VPS launch may proceed on the current static default while this lands in parallel.
+
+# 23 — Dynamic per-model pricing benchmarked against HuggingFace inference rates
+
+## What to build
+
+Client-facing price per model should track the market: **80% of the cheapest comparable provider rate on HuggingFace's inference marketplace** (`https://huggingface.co/inference/models`), refreshed daily, auto-adjusting so served models stay competitively priced as the market moves. Nodes are unaffected by this loop (per launch design: clients are the only party spending real money; node payouts come from the 90/10 split of whatever price is charged, per ADR-0015/`packages/validator/README.md`).
+
+**Current state (confirmed by code read 2026-07-06):** pricing is 100% static today. `DEFAULT_PRICE_PER_1K_TOKENS = 0.02` (`packages/tracker/meshnet_tracker/billing.py:21`) is the fallback nearly every model hits, since `model_presets.json` currently has no `price_per_1k_tokens` key for any preset. `BillingLedger.set_price(model, price)` (`billing.py:67-69`) is the only write path and already exists — no CLI/admin route calls it yet. No external HTTP/market-data integration exists anywhere in the tracker.
+
+**Data source:** `https://huggingface.co/inference/models` aggregates multiple providers (novita, together, fireworks-ai, deepinfra, etc.) with per-model, per-provider $/1M input and output token pricing; the "cheapest" badge already identifies the lowest-cost provider per model on the page itself. It supports a GET query param for filtering, e.g. `?search=GLM`. **No confirmed public JSON API was found** during this session's fetch — the page reads as a rendered table. Owner's suggestion: try a plain `requests` + BeautifulSoup scrape first; if the pricing table turns out to be client-rendered (not present in the initial HTML), that's the fallback signal to escalate to a headless-browser fetch (e.g. Playwright) — confirm which is needed during implementation before building the full pipeline around it. Another data source is acceptable if more convenient/stable, owner is not wedded to this specific page.
+
+## Deliverables
+
+- [x] Live-fetch attempt (requests + BeautifulSoup against the HF page with `?search=<model-family>`, or an equivalent stable source) as the primary path — confirm during implementation whether the pricing table is present in the raw HTML or requires a headless-browser fetch, and note which in the PR
+- [x] Extend `model_presets.json` per model with: `hf_aliases` (curated list of comparable HF model+provider IDs — **human-verified, not auto-discovered**), `hf_verified_match_note` (free text: params count + quantization confirmation, so a human signs off once per alias that it is a fair comparable before it's used for auto-pricing), `hf_last_price_per_1k` (derived from the $/1M rate), `hf_last_updated` (ISO date)
+- [x] Daily refresh job reusing the tracker's existing daemon-thread pattern (`_settlement_loop`/`_deposit_loop` in `server.py`, `threading.Event().wait(interval)` loop) — for each preset with a non-empty `hf_aliases` list, fetch current pricing for those aliases, compute `0.8 × cheapest matched alias price`, call `set_price()`, and update `hf_last_price_per_1k`/`hf_last_updated`
+- [x] Every price change logged (old price, new price, source alias, timestamp) — needed for dispute auditability if a client questions a charge
+- [x] Fallback behavior: empty/missing `hf_aliases`, fetch failure, or no verified match → silently keep the existing static default price. Never error the pricing path, never zero-price a model
+
+## Acceptance criteria
+
+- [x] At least one model preset has a working end-to-end refresh (alias → live fetch → 80% computed price → `set_price()` called → metadata updated) demonstrated in a test
+- [x] Models without a curated/verified alias continue to use the static default, unaffected by this feature
+- [x] Fetch failures (network error, page structure change, no match found) degrade gracefully — logged, not raised to the request path
+- [x] Price-change log is queryable/inspectable (doesn't need a UI yet — a log line or table row is sufficient for alpha)
+- [x] Note in the runbook/issue on which fetch mechanism (plain HTTP scrape vs. headless browser) was actually required, so the next person doesn't have to rediscover it
+
+## Implementation notes (2026-07-06)
+
+**Fetch mechanism confirmed: plain HTTP scrape, no headless browser needed.** Live-fetched `https://huggingface.co/inference/models?search=GLM` this session — the pricing table is server-rendered into the initial HTML response (SvelteKit SSR), confirmed by grepping the raw response for `cheapest`/`$`-prefixed price cells before any JS runs. A stdlib `urllib.request` GET + `html.parser.HTMLParser`-based table walk is sufficient; no `requests`/`bs4`/Playwright dependency was added, matching this package's existing zero-new-HTTP-dependency convention (`gossip.py`/`raft.py`/`server.py` all use `urllib.request` only). Each row's most stable extraction anchor turned out to be the `<a href="/<org>/<repo>/?inference_api=true&inference_provider=<provider>">` link, not the display text (which duplicates the repo id at two responsive breakpoints and is easy to mis-parse).
+
+**What shipped:** new `packages/tracker/meshnet_tracker/hf_pricing.py` — pure HTML parser (`parse_hf_pricing_table`), alias matching (`cheapest_matching_quote`, supports both `org/repo` and `org/repo::provider` forms so a human can pin a specific provider's deployment), a pure per-preset computation function (`refresh_preset_price`, never raises), and `HfPricingLog` (SQLite-backed change log, same shape as `billing.py`/`calibration.py`). `TrackerServer` gained an opt-in (`enable_hf_pricing=True` / `--enable-hf-pricing`) daily daemon thread (`_hf_pricing_loop`, same `threading.Event().wait(interval)` shape as `_settlement_loop`) and `GET /v1/pricing/hf/history` (admin/validator-gated, mirrors `/v1/calibration/toploc/results`). `model_presets.json`'s `kimi-k2.7` preset now carries the `hf_aliases`/`hf_verified_match_note` schema fields, left as an empty list pending a human sign-off on a genuinely comparable HF listing (params count + quantization) — per this issue's own "human-verified, not auto-discovered" requirement, an agent should not fabricate that sign-off. This also means the shipped default config demonstrates the required "no alias → static price, unaffected" fallback for a real production preset; the alias→live-fetch→80%→set_price() path is demonstrated end-to-end against an injected fetch backend in `tests/test_hf_pricing_dispatch.py` (the `fetch_html=`/`hf_pricing_fetch_html=` injection point mirrors this codebase's `backend=` convention for anything that would otherwise hit the network in tests).
+
+**Bug caught and fixed while wiring this in:** `TrackerServer` previously did `dict(DEFAULT_MODEL_PRESETS)` when no explicit `model_presets` was passed — a shallow copy that aliases every preset's inner dict to the shared module-level global. Writing `hf_last_price_per_1k`/`hf_last_updated` in place would have leaked across every other `TrackerServer` instance in the same process (real risk in the test suite, and in any future multi-tracker-in-one-process embedding). Fixed with a `_clone_model_presets()` helper that also shallow-copies each preset dict.
+
+**Follow-up for a human (not a completion blocker):** populate real `hf_aliases`/`hf_verified_match_note` entries for production presets once someone has confirmed a genuinely comparable HF-listed deployment (params + quantization) — that activates dynamic pricing for that model on the next refresh tick. Until then every preset safely stays on its static price.
+
+Tests: `tests/test_hf_pricing.py` (11 tests: parsing, blended-price math, alias matching incl. provider-scoped aliases, all three fallback paths, log persistence) + `tests/test_hf_pricing_dispatch.py` (5 tests: full TrackerServer end-to-end refresh, unaffected-without-alias, history auth gating, history content, history model filter). Full suite (`pytest tests/ -q -k "not integration"`): 346 passed, 2 skipped.
+
+## ADR links
+
+- [ADR-0015](../../docs/adr/0015-usdt-custodial-settlement.md) — settlement/pricing this touches (90/10 split, per-model pricing)
+
+## Blocked by
+
+None — independent of the alpha-hardening trust-boundary work; touches `billing.py`/`server.py` pricing paths only.
+
+## Blocks
+
+None — ship-soon for launch quality, not a release gate (see status note above).