701 lines
26 KiB
Markdown
701 lines
26 KiB
Markdown
# Multi-Modal Trading System Design Document
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## Overview
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The Multi-Modal Trading System is designed as an advanced algorithmic trading platform that combines Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Reinforcement Learning (RL) models orchestrated by a decision-making module. The system processes multi-timeframe and multi-symbol market data (primarily ETH and BTC) to generate trading actions.
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This design document outlines the architecture, components, data flow, and implementation details for the system based on the requirements and existing codebase.
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## Architecture
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The system follows a modular architecture with clear separation of concerns:
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```mermaid
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graph TD
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A[Data Provider] --> B[Data Processor] (calculates pivot points)
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B --> C[CNN Model]
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B --> D[RL(DQN) Model]
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C --> E[Orchestrator]
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D --> E
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E --> F[Trading Executor]
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E --> G[Dashboard]
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F --> G
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H[Risk Manager] --> F
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H --> G
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```
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### Key Components
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1. **Data Provider**: Centralized component responsible for collecting, processing, and distributing market data from multiple sources.
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2. **Data Processor**: Processes raw market data, calculates technical indicators, and identifies pivot points.
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3. **CNN Model**: Analyzes patterns in market data and predicts pivot points across multiple timeframes.
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4. **RL Model**: Learns optimal trading strategies based on market data and CNN predictions.
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5. **Orchestrator**: Makes final trading decisions based on inputs from both CNN and RL models.
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6. **Trading Executor**: Executes trading actions through brokerage APIs.
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7. **Risk Manager**: Implements risk management features like stop-loss and position sizing.
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8. **Dashboard**: Provides a user interface for monitoring and controlling the system.
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## Components and Interfaces
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### 1. Data Provider
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The Data Provider is the foundation of the system, responsible for collecting, processing, and distributing market data to all other components.
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#### Key Classes and Interfaces
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- **DataProvider**: Central class that manages data collection, processing, and distribution.
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- **MarketTick**: Data structure for standardized market tick data.
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- **DataSubscriber**: Interface for components that subscribe to market data.
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- **PivotBounds**: Data structure for pivot-based normalization bounds.
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#### Implementation Details
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The DataProvider class will:
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- Collect data from multiple sources (Binance, MEXC)
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- Support multiple timeframes (1s, 1m, 1h, 1d)
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- Support multiple symbols (ETH, BTC)
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- Calculate technical indicators
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- Identify pivot points
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- Normalize data
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- Distribute data to subscribers
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- Calculate any other algoritmic manipulations/calculations on the data
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- Cache up to 3x the model inputs (300 ticks OHLCV, etc) data so we can do a proper backtesting in up to 2x time in the future
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Based on the existing implementation in `core/data_provider.py`, we'll enhance it to:
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- Improve pivot point calculation using reccursive Williams Market Structure
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- Optimize data caching for better performance
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- Enhance real-time data streaming
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- Implement better error handling and fallback mechanisms
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### BASE FOR ALL MODELS ###
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- ***INPUTS***: COB+OHCLV data frame as described:
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- OHCLV: 300 frames of (1s, 1m, 1h, 1d) ETH + 300s of 1s BTC
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- COB: for each 1s OHCLV we have +- 20 buckets of COB ammounts in USD
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- 1,5,15 and 60s MA of the COB imbalance counting +- 5 COB buckets
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- ***OUTPUTS***: suggested trade action (BUY/SELL)
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### 2. CNN Model
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The CNN Model is responsible for analyzing patterns in market data and predicting pivot points across multiple timeframes.
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#### Key Classes and Interfaces
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- **CNNModel**: Main class for the CNN model.
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- **PivotPointPredictor**: Interface for predicting pivot points.
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- **CNNTrainer**: Class for training the CNN model.
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- ***INPUTS***: COB+OHCLV+Old Pivots (5 levels of pivots)
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- ***OUTPUTS***: next pivot point for each level as price-time vector. (can be plotted as trend line) + suggested trade action (BUY/SELL)
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#### Implementation Details
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The CNN Model will:
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- Accept multi-timeframe and multi-symbol data as input
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- Output predicted pivot points for each timeframe (1s, 1m, 1h, 1d)
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- Provide confidence scores for each prediction
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- Make hidden layer states available for the RL model
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Architecture:
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- Input layer: Multi-channel input for different timeframes and symbols
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- Convolutional layers: Extract patterns from time series data
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- LSTM/GRU layers: Capture temporal dependencies
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- Attention mechanism: Focus on relevant parts of the input
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- Output layer: Predict pivot points and confidence scores
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Training:
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- Use programmatically calculated pivot points as ground truth
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- Train on historical data
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- Update model when new pivot points are detected
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- Use backpropagation to optimize weights
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### 3. RL Model
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The RL Model is responsible for learning optimal trading strategies based on market data and CNN predictions.
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#### Key Classes and Interfaces
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- **RLModel**: Main class for the RL model.
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- **TradingActionGenerator**: Interface for generating trading actions.
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- **RLTrainer**: Class for training the RL model.
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#### Implementation Details
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The RL Model will:
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- Accept market data, CNN model predictions (output), and CNN hidden layer states as input
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- Output trading action recommendations (buy/sell)
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- Provide confidence scores for each action
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- Learn from past experiences to adapt to the current market environment
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Architecture:
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- State representation: Market data, CNN model predictions (output), CNN hidden layer states
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- Action space: Buy, Sell
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- Reward function: PnL, risk-adjusted returns
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- Policy network: Deep neural network
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- Value network: Estimate expected returns
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Training:
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- Use reinforcement learning algorithms (DQN, PPO, A3C)
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- Train on historical data
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- Update model based on trading outcomes
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- Use experience replay to improve sample efficiency
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### 4. Orchestrator
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The Orchestrator serves as the central coordination hub of the multi-modal trading system, responsible for data subscription management, model inference coordination, output storage, training pipeline orchestration, and inference-training feedback loop management.
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#### Key Classes and Interfaces
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- **Orchestrator**: Main class for the orchestrator.
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- **DataSubscriptionManager**: Manages subscriptions to multiple data streams with different refresh rates.
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- **ModelInferenceCoordinator**: Coordinates inference across all models.
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- **ModelOutputStore**: Stores and manages model outputs for cross-model feeding.
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- **TrainingPipelineManager**: Manages training pipelines for all models.
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- **DecisionMaker**: Interface for making trading decisions.
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- **MoEGateway**: Mixture of Experts gateway for model integration.
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#### Core Responsibilities
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##### 1. Data Subscription and Management
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The Orchestrator subscribes to the Data Provider and manages multiple data streams with varying refresh rates:
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- **10Hz COB (Cumulative Order Book) Data**: High-frequency order book updates for real-time market depth analysis
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- **OHLCV Data**: Traditional candlestick data at multiple timeframes (1s, 1m, 1h, 1d)
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- **Market Tick Data**: Individual trade executions and price movements
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- **Technical Indicators**: Calculated indicators that update at different frequencies
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- **Pivot Points**: Market structure analysis data
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**Data Stream Management**:
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- Maintains separate buffers for each data type with appropriate retention policies
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- Ensures thread-safe access to data streams from multiple models
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- Implements intelligent caching to serve "last updated" data efficiently
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- Maintains full base dataframe that stays current for any model requesting data
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- Handles data synchronization across different refresh rates
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**Enhanced 1s Timeseries Data Combination**:
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- Combines OHLCV data with COB (Cumulative Order Book) data for 1s timeframes
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- Implements price bucket aggregation: ±20 buckets around current price
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- ETH: $1 bucket size (e.g., $3000-$3040 range = 40 buckets) when current price is 3020
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- BTC: $10 bucket size (e.g., $50000-$50400 range = 40 buckets) when price is 50200
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- Creates unified base data input that includes:
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- Traditional OHLCV metrics (Open, High, Low, Close, Volume)
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- Order book depth and liquidity at each price level
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- Bid/ask imbalances for the +-5 buckets with Moving Averages for 5,15, and 60s
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- Volume-weighted average prices within buckets
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- Order flow dynamics and market microstructure data
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##### 2. Model Inference Coordination
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The Orchestrator coordinates inference across all models in the system:
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**Inference Pipeline**:
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- Triggers model inference when relevant data updates occur
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- Manages inference scheduling based on data availability and model requirements
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- Coordinates parallel inference execution for independent models
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- Handles model dependencies (e.g., RL model waiting for CNN hidden states)
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**Model Input Management**:
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- Assembles appropriate input data for each model based on their requirements
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- Ensures models receive the most current data available at inference time
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- Manages feature engineering and data preprocessing for each model
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- Handles different input formats and requirements across models
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##### 3. Model Output Storage and Cross-Feeding
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The Orchestrator maintains a centralized store for all model outputs and manages cross-model data feeding:
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**Output Storage**:
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- Stores CNN predictions, confidence scores, and hidden layer states
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- Stores RL action recommendations and value estimates
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- Stores outputs from all models in extensible format supporting future models (LSTM, Transformer, etc.)
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- Maintains historical output sequences for temporal analysis
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- Implements efficient retrieval mechanisms for real-time access
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- Uses standardized ModelOutput format for easy extension and cross-model compatibility
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**Cross-Model Feeding**:
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- Feeds CNN hidden layer states into RL model inputs
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- Provides CNN predictions as context for RL decision-making
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- Includes "last predictions" from each available model as part of base data input
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- Stores model outputs that become inputs for subsequent inference cycles
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- Manages circular dependencies and feedback loops between models
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- Supports dynamic model addition without requiring system architecture changes
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##### 4. Training Pipeline Management
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The Orchestrator coordinates training for all models by managing the prediction-result feedback loop:
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**Training Coordination**:
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- Calls each model's training pipeline when new inference results are available
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- Provides previous predictions alongside new results for supervised learning
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- Manages training data collection and labeling
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- Coordinates online learning updates based on real-time performance
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**Training Data Management**:
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- Maintains training datasets with prediction-result pairs
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- Implements data quality checks and filtering
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- Manages training data retention and archival policies
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- Provides training data statistics and monitoring
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**Performance Tracking**:
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- Tracks prediction accuracy for each model over time
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- Monitors model performance degradation and triggers retraining
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- Maintains performance metrics for model comparison and selection
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**Training progress and checkpoints persistance**
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- it uses the checkpoint manager to store check points of each model over time as training progresses and we have improvements
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- checkpoint manager has capability to ensure only top 5 to 10 best checkpoints are stored for each model deleting the least performant ones. it stores metadata along the CPs to decide the performance
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- we automatically load the best CP at startup if we have stored ones
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##### 5. Inference Data Validation and Storage
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The Orchestrator implements comprehensive inference data validation and persistent storage:
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**Input Data Validation**:
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- Validates complete OHLCV dataframes for all required timeframes before inference
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- Checks input data dimensions against model requirements
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- Logs missing components and prevents prediction on incomplete data
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- Raises validation errors with specific details about expected vs actual dimensions
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**Inference History Storage**:
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- Stores complete input data packages with each prediction in persistent storage
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- Includes timestamp, symbol, input features, prediction outputs, confidence scores, and model internal states
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- Maintains compressed storage to minimize footprint while preserving accessibility
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- Implements efficient query mechanisms by symbol, timeframe, and date range
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**Storage Management**:
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- Applies configurable retention policies to manage storage limits
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- Archives or removes oldest entries when limits are reached
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- Prioritizes keeping most recent and valuable training examples during storage pressure
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- Provides data completeness metrics and validation results in logs
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##### 6. Inference-Training Feedback Loop
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The Orchestrator manages the continuous learning cycle through inference-training feedback:
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**Prediction Outcome Evaluation**:
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- Evaluates prediction accuracy against actual price movements after sufficient time has passed
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- Creates training examples using stored inference data paired with actual market outcomes
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- Feeds prediction-result pairs back to respective models for learning
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**Adaptive Learning Signals**:
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- Provides positive reinforcement signals for accurate predictions
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- Delivers corrective training signals for inaccurate predictions to help models learn from mistakes
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- Retrieves last inference data for each model to compare predictions against actual outcomes
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**Continuous Improvement Tracking**:
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- Tracks and reports accuracy improvements or degradations over time
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- Monitors model learning progress through the feedback loop
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- Alerts administrators when data flow issues are detected with specific error details and remediation suggestions
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##### 5. Decision Making and Trading Actions
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Beyond coordination, the Orchestrator makes final trading decisions:
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**Decision Integration**:
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- Combines outputs from CNN and RL models using Mixture of Experts approach
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- Applies confidence-based filtering to avoid uncertain trades
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- Implements configurable thresholds for buy/sell decisions
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- Considers market conditions and risk parameters
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#### Implementation Details
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**Architecture**:
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```python
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class Orchestrator:
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def __init__(self):
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self.data_subscription_manager = DataSubscriptionManager()
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self.model_inference_coordinator = ModelInferenceCoordinator()
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self.model_output_store = ModelOutputStore()
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self.training_pipeline_manager = TrainingPipelineManager()
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self.decision_maker = DecisionMaker()
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self.moe_gateway = MoEGateway()
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async def run(self):
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# Subscribe to data streams
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await self.data_subscription_manager.subscribe_to_data_provider()
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# Start inference coordination loop
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await self.model_inference_coordinator.start()
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# Start training pipeline management
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await self.training_pipeline_manager.start()
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```
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**Data Flow Management**:
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- Implements event-driven architecture for data updates
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- Uses async/await patterns for non-blocking operations
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- Maintains data freshness timestamps for each stream
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- Implements backpressure handling for high-frequency data
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**Model Coordination**:
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- Manages model lifecycle (loading, inference, training, updating)
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- Implements model versioning and rollback capabilities
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- Handles model failures and fallback mechanisms
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- Provides model performance monitoring and alerting
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**Training Integration**:
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- Implements incremental learning strategies
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- Manages training batch composition and scheduling
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- Provides training progress monitoring and control
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- Handles training failures and recovery
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### 5. Trading Executor
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The Trading Executor is responsible for executing trading actions through brokerage APIs.
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#### Key Classes and Interfaces
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- **TradingExecutor**: Main class for the trading executor.
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- **BrokerageAPI**: Interface for interacting with brokerages.
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- **OrderManager**: Class for managing orders.
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#### Implementation Details
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The Trading Executor will:
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- Accept trading actions from the orchestrator
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- Execute orders through brokerage APIs
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- Manage order lifecycle
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- Handle errors and retries
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- Provide feedback on order execution
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Supported brokerages:
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- MEXC
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- Binance
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- Bybit (future extension)
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Order types:
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- Market orders
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- Limit orders
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- Stop-loss orders
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### 6. Risk Manager
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The Risk Manager is responsible for implementing risk management features like stop-loss and position sizing.
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#### Key Classes and Interfaces
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- **RiskManager**: Main class for the risk manager.
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- **StopLossManager**: Class for managing stop-loss orders.
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- **PositionSizer**: Class for determining position sizes.
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#### Implementation Details
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The Risk Manager will:
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- Implement configurable stop-loss functionality
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- Implement configurable position sizing based on risk parameters
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- Implement configurable maximum drawdown limits
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- Provide real-time risk metrics
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- Provide alerts for high-risk situations
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Risk parameters:
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- Maximum position size
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- Maximum drawdown
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- Risk per trade
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- Maximum leverage
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### 7. Dashboard
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The Dashboard provides a user interface for monitoring and controlling the system.
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#### Key Classes and Interfaces
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- **Dashboard**: Main class for the dashboard.
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- **ChartManager**: Class for managing charts.
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- **ControlPanel**: Class for managing controls.
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#### Implementation Details
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The Dashboard will:
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- Display real-time market data for all symbols and timeframes
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- Display OHLCV charts for all timeframes
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- Display CNN pivot point predictions and confidence levels
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- Display RL and orchestrator trading actions and confidence levels
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- Display system status and model performance metrics
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- Provide start/stop toggles for all system processes
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- Provide sliders to adjust buy/sell thresholds for the orchestrator
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Implementation:
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- Web-based dashboard using Flask/Dash
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- Real-time updates using WebSockets
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- Interactive charts using Plotly
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- Server-side processing for all models
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## Data Models
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### Market Data
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```python
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@dataclass
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class MarketTick:
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symbol: str
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timestamp: datetime
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price: float
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volume: float
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quantity: float
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side: str # 'buy' or 'sell'
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trade_id: str
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is_buyer_maker: bool
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raw_data: Dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
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```
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### OHLCV Data
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```python
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@dataclass
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class OHLCVBar:
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symbol: str
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timestamp: datetime
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open: float
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high: float
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low: float
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close: float
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volume: float
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timeframe: str
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indicators: Dict[str, float] = field(default_factory=dict)
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```
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### Pivot Points
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```python
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@dataclass
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class PivotPoint:
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symbol: str
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timestamp: datetime
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price: float
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type: str # 'high' or 'low'
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level: int # Pivot level (1, 2, 3, etc.)
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confidence: float = 1.0
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```
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### Trading Actions
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```python
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@dataclass
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class TradingAction:
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symbol: str
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timestamp: datetime
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action: str # 'buy' or 'sell'
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confidence: float
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source: str # 'rl', 'cnn', 'orchestrator'
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price: Optional[float] = None
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quantity: Optional[float] = None
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reason: Optional[str] = None
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```
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### Model Predictions
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```python
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@dataclass
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class ModelOutput:
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"""Extensible model output format supporting all model types"""
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model_type: str # 'cnn', 'rl', 'lstm', 'transformer', 'orchestrator'
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model_name: str # Specific model identifier
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symbol: str
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timestamp: datetime
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confidence: float
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predictions: Dict[str, Any] # Model-specific predictions
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hidden_states: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None # For cross-model feeding
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metadata: Dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict) # Additional info
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```
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```python
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@dataclass
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class CNNPrediction:
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symbol: str
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timestamp: datetime
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pivot_points: List[PivotPoint]
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hidden_states: Dict[str, Any]
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confidence: float
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```
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```python
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@dataclass
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class RLPrediction:
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symbol: str
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timestamp: datetime
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action: str # 'buy' or 'sell'
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confidence: float
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expected_reward: float
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```
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### Enhanced Base Data Input
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```python
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@dataclass
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class BaseDataInput:
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"""Unified base data input for all models"""
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symbol: str
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timestamp: datetime
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ohlcv_data: Dict[str, OHLCVBar] # Multi-timeframe OHLCV
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cob_data: Optional[Dict[str, float]] = None # COB buckets for 1s timeframe
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technical_indicators: Dict[str, float] = field(default_factory=dict)
|
|
pivot_points: List[PivotPoint] = field(default_factory=list)
|
|
last_predictions: Dict[str, ModelOutput] = field(default_factory=dict) # From all models
|
|
market_microstructure: Dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict) # Order flow, etc.
|
|
```
|
|
|
|
### COB Data Structure
|
|
|
|
```python
|
|
@dataclass
|
|
class COBData:
|
|
"""Cumulative Order Book data for price buckets"""
|
|
symbol: str
|
|
timestamp: datetime
|
|
current_price: float
|
|
bucket_size: float # $1 for ETH, $10 for BTC
|
|
price_buckets: Dict[float, Dict[str, float]] # price -> {bid_volume, ask_volume, etc.}
|
|
bid_ask_imbalance: Dict[float, float] # price -> imbalance ratio
|
|
volume_weighted_prices: Dict[float, float] # price -> VWAP within bucket
|
|
order_flow_metrics: Dict[str, float] # Various order flow indicators
|
|
```
|
|
|
|
### Data Collection Errors
|
|
|
|
- Implement retry mechanisms for API failures
|
|
- Use fallback data sources when primary sources are unavailable
|
|
- Log all errors with detailed information
|
|
- Notify users through the dashboard
|
|
|
|
### Model Errors
|
|
|
|
- Implement model validation before deployment
|
|
- Use fallback models when primary models fail
|
|
- Log all errors with detailed information
|
|
- Notify users through the dashboard
|
|
|
|
### Trading Errors
|
|
|
|
- Implement order validation before submission
|
|
- Use retry mechanisms for order failures
|
|
- Implement circuit breakers for extreme market conditions
|
|
- Log all errors with detailed information
|
|
- Notify users through the dashboard
|
|
|
|
## Testing Strategy
|
|
|
|
### Unit Testing
|
|
|
|
- Test individual components in isolation
|
|
- Use mock objects for dependencies
|
|
- Focus on edge cases and error handling
|
|
|
|
### Integration Testing
|
|
|
|
- Test interactions between components
|
|
- Use real data for testing
|
|
- Focus on data flow and error propagation
|
|
|
|
### System Testing
|
|
|
|
- Test the entire system end-to-end
|
|
- Use real data for testing
|
|
- Focus on performance and reliability
|
|
|
|
### Backtesting
|
|
|
|
- Test trading strategies on historical data
|
|
- Measure performance metrics (PnL, Sharpe ratio, etc.)
|
|
- Compare against benchmarks
|
|
|
|
### Live Testing
|
|
|
|
- Test the system in a live environment with small position sizes
|
|
- Monitor performance and stability
|
|
- Gradually increase position sizes as confidence grows
|
|
|
|
## Implementation Plan
|
|
|
|
The implementation will follow a phased approach:
|
|
|
|
1. **Phase 1: Data Provider**
|
|
- Implement the enhanced data provider
|
|
- Implement pivot point calculation
|
|
- Implement technical indicator calculation
|
|
- Implement data normalization
|
|
|
|
2. **Phase 2: CNN Model**
|
|
- Implement the CNN model architecture
|
|
- Implement the training pipeline
|
|
- Implement the inference pipeline
|
|
- Implement the pivot point prediction
|
|
|
|
3. **Phase 3: RL Model**
|
|
- Implement the RL model architecture
|
|
- Implement the training pipeline
|
|
- Implement the inference pipeline
|
|
- Implement the trading action generation
|
|
|
|
4. **Phase 4: Orchestrator**
|
|
- Implement the orchestrator architecture
|
|
- Implement the decision-making logic
|
|
- Implement the MoE gateway
|
|
- Implement the confidence-based filtering
|
|
|
|
5. **Phase 5: Trading Executor**
|
|
- Implement the trading executor
|
|
- Implement the brokerage API integrations
|
|
- Implement the order management
|
|
- Implement the error handling
|
|
|
|
6. **Phase 6: Risk Manager**
|
|
- Implement the risk manager
|
|
- Implement the stop-loss functionality
|
|
- Implement the position sizing
|
|
- Implement the risk metrics
|
|
|
|
7. **Phase 7: Dashboard**
|
|
- Implement the dashboard UI
|
|
- Implement the chart management
|
|
- Implement the control panel
|
|
- Implement the real-time updates
|
|
|
|
8. **Phase 8: Integration and Testing**
|
|
- Integrate all components
|
|
- Implement comprehensive testing
|
|
- Fix bugs and optimize performance
|
|
- Deploy to production
|
|
|
|
## Monitoring and Visualization
|
|
|
|
### TensorBoard Integration (Future Enhancement)
|
|
|
|
A comprehensive TensorBoard integration has been designed to provide detailed training visualization and monitoring capabilities:
|
|
|
|
#### Features
|
|
- **Training Metrics Visualization**: Real-time tracking of model losses, rewards, and performance metrics
|
|
- **Feature Distribution Analysis**: Histograms and statistics of input features to validate data quality
|
|
- **State Quality Monitoring**: Tracking of comprehensive state building (13,400 features) success rates
|
|
- **Reward Component Analysis**: Detailed breakdown of reward calculations including PnL, confidence, volatility, and order flow
|
|
- **Model Performance Comparison**: Side-by-side comparison of CNN, RL, and orchestrator performance
|
|
|
|
#### Implementation Status
|
|
- **Completed**: TensorBoardLogger utility class with comprehensive logging methods
|
|
- **Completed**: Integration points in enhanced_rl_training_integration.py
|
|
- **Completed**: Enhanced run_tensorboard.py with improved visualization options
|
|
- **Status**: Ready for deployment when system stability is achieved
|
|
|
|
#### Usage
|
|
```bash
|
|
# Start TensorBoard dashboard
|
|
python run_tensorboard.py
|
|
|
|
# Access at http://localhost:6006
|
|
# View training metrics, feature distributions, and model performance
|
|
```
|
|
|
|
#### Benefits
|
|
- Real-time validation of training process
|
|
- Early detection of training issues
|
|
- Feature importance analysis
|
|
- Model performance comparison
|
|
- Historical training progress tracking
|
|
|
|
**Note**: TensorBoard integration is currently deprioritized in favor of system stability and core model improvements. It will be activated once the core training system is stable and performing optimally.
|
|
|
|
## Conclusion
|
|
|
|
This design document outlines the architecture, components, data flow, and implementation details for the Multi-Modal Trading System. The system is designed to be modular, extensible, and robust, with a focus on performance, reliability, and user experience.
|
|
|
|
The implementation will follow a phased approach, with each phase building on the previous one. The system will be thoroughly tested at each phase to ensure that it meets the requirements and performs as expected.
|
|
|
|
The final system will provide traders with a powerful tool for analyzing market data, identifying trading opportunities, and executing trades with confidence. |