gogo2/PREDICTION_UPDATE_DEBUG.md

Prediction Candle Update - Debug Guide

Current Status

Charts have been restored - pivot dots are back.

How Prediction Updates Should Work

1. Prediction Created

• Ghost candle added to ghostCandleHistory[timeframe]
• Initial status: "AWAITING VALIDATION"
• Opacity: 30%

2. Real Candle Arrives

• updateLatestCandle() is called
• Triggers _checkPredictionAccuracy(timeframe, chart.data)
• Validation checks if timestamp matches prediction

3. Validation Happens

• Compares predicted vs actual OHLCV
• Calculates accuracy, errors, direction
• Stores accuracy in ghost.accuracy
• Logs: [timeframe] ✓ Validated X predictions

4. Display Refresh

• _refreshPredictionDisplay(timeframe) is called
• Removes old ghost candle traces
• Re-adds ghost candles with updated tooltips
• Validated candles show accuracy in tooltip

Console Logs to Watch For

Good Flow:

[1s] Added new candle: 2025-11-22 16:30:05
[1s] Triggering validation check for candle at index 2498
[1s] ✓ Validated 1 predictions (0 expired), 9 still pending, 1 total validated
[1s] Model Accuracy: 85.3% avg, 100.0% direction
[1s] Triggering prediction display refresh...
[1s] Refreshing 10 prediction candles with updated accuracy
[1s] Removing 10 old prediction traces
[1s] Added 10 updated prediction traces

Problem Indicators:

[1s] No match yet for prediction: ... (age > 30s)  ← Timestamps not matching
[1s] No ghost candle history, skipping prediction refresh  ← Predictions not being stored
[1s] Chart has insufficient traces  ← Chart initialization failed

Debug Steps

Step 1: Check Browser Console

Open DevTools Console and look for:

1. Added new candle messages - are candles updating?
2. Validated X predictions - is validation happening?
3. Refreshing X prediction candles - is refresh being called?
4. Any errors in red

Step 2: Check Prediction Storage

In console, run:

window.appState.chartManager.ghostCandleHistory

Should show predictions per timeframe with accuracy property when validated.

Step 3: Check if Validation is Triggered

Look for:

[1s] Triggering validation check for candle at index...

This should appear every time a new candle is added.

Step 4: Check Timestamp Matching

If you see many "No match yet for prediction" messages, the timestamps might not be aligning.

Check:

// Last real candle timestamp
window.appState.chartManager.charts['1s'].data.timestamps.slice(-3)

// Prediction timestamps
window.appState.chartManager.ghostCandleHistory['1s'].map(g => g.timestamp)

Common Issues & Fixes

Issue 1: Predictions Never Validate

Symptom: All predictions stay "AWAITING VALIDATION" forever Cause: Timestamp mismatch or validation not being triggered Fix: Check that updateLatestCandle is calling _checkPredictionAccuracy

Issue 2: Predictions Validate But Don't Update Visually

Symptom: Console shows validation, but tooltips still show "AWAITING VALIDATION" Cause: _refreshPredictionDisplay not being called or failing Fix: Check for errors in _refreshPredictionDisplay

Issue 3: Charts are Blank

Symptom: No candles show at all Cause: Chart initialization failed Fix: Check console for "Chart has insufficient traces" errors

Issue 4: Predictions Expire Immediately

Symptom: All predictions marked as "EXPIRED (no match)" after 30s Cause: Timestamp format mismatch - predictions and real candles use different formats Fix: Ensure both use YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM:SS UTC format

Key Files

• /ANNOTATE/web/static/js/chart_manager.js:
  • updateLatestCandle() - line 285 - handles new candles
  • _checkPredictionAccuracy() - line 2145 - validates predictions
  • _refreshPredictionDisplay() - line 2430 - updates display

Next Steps

1. Hard refresh: Ctrl + Shift + R
2. Open Console: F12 → Console tab
3. Start live training: Click "Live Inference + Per-Candle Training"
4. Watch console logs: Look for validation and refresh messages
5. Share console output: Copy any errors or unexpected behavior

Expected Timeline

For 1s charts:

• T+0s: Prediction created for T+1s
• T+1s: Real candle for T+1s arrives
• T+2s: Validation happens (against T-1s candle)
• T+2s: Display refreshes with accuracy

For 1m charts:

• T+0m: Prediction created for T+1m
• T+1m: Real candle for T+1m arrives
• T+2m: Validation happens
• T+2m: Display refreshes with accuracy