fix prediction candles updates. fix for trend prediction.

PREDICTION_UPDATE_DEBUG.md

@@ -0,0 +1,135 @@
+# Prediction Candle Update - Debug Guide
+
+## Current Status
+
+Charts have been **restored** - pivot dots are back.
+
+## How Prediction Updates Should Work
+
+### 1. Prediction Created
+- Ghost candle added to `ghostCandleHistory[timeframe]`
+- Initial status: "AWAITING VALIDATION"
+- Opacity: 30%
+
+### 2. Real Candle Arrives
+- `updateLatestCandle()` is called
+- Triggers `_checkPredictionAccuracy(timeframe, chart.data)`
+- Validation checks if timestamp matches prediction
+
+### 3. Validation Happens
+- Compares predicted vs actual OHLCV
+- Calculates accuracy, errors, direction
+- Stores accuracy in `ghost.accuracy`
+- Logs: `[timeframe] ✓ Validated X predictions`
+
+### 4. Display Refresh
+- `_refreshPredictionDisplay(timeframe)` is called
+- Removes old ghost candle traces
+- Re-adds ghost candles with updated tooltips
+- Validated candles show accuracy in tooltip
+
+## Console Logs to Watch For
+
+### Good Flow:
+```
+[1s] Added new candle: 2025-11-22 16:30:05
+[1s] Triggering validation check for candle at index 2498
+[1s] ✓ Validated 1 predictions (0 expired), 9 still pending, 1 total validated
+[1s] Model Accuracy: 85.3% avg, 100.0% direction
+[1s] Triggering prediction display refresh...
+[1s] Refreshing 10 prediction candles with updated accuracy
+[1s] Removing 10 old prediction traces
+[1s] Added 10 updated prediction traces
+```
+
+### Problem Indicators:
+```
+[1s] No match yet for prediction: ... (age > 30s)  ← Timestamps not matching
+[1s] No ghost candle history, skipping prediction refresh  ← Predictions not being stored
+[1s] Chart has insufficient traces  ← Chart initialization failed
+```
+
+## Debug Steps
+
+### Step 1: Check Browser Console
+Open DevTools Console and look for:
+1. `Added new candle` messages - are candles updating?
+2. `Validated X predictions` - is validation happening?
+3. `Refreshing X prediction candles` - is refresh being called?
+4. Any errors in red
+
+### Step 2: Check Prediction Storage
+In console, run:
+```javascript
+window.appState.chartManager.ghostCandleHistory
+```
+Should show predictions per timeframe with `accuracy` property when validated.
+
+### Step 3: Check if Validation is Triggered
+Look for:
+```
+[1s] Triggering validation check for candle at index...
+```
+This should appear every time a new candle is added.
+
+### Step 4: Check Timestamp Matching
+If you see many "No match yet for prediction" messages, the timestamps might not be aligning.
+
+Check:
+```javascript
+// Last real candle timestamp
+window.appState.chartManager.charts['1s'].data.timestamps.slice(-3)
+
+// Prediction timestamps
+window.appState.chartManager.ghostCandleHistory['1s'].map(g => g.timestamp)
+```
+
+## Common Issues & Fixes
+
+### Issue 1: Predictions Never Validate
+**Symptom**: All predictions stay "AWAITING VALIDATION" forever
+**Cause**: Timestamp mismatch or validation not being triggered
+**Fix**: Check that `updateLatestCandle` is calling `_checkPredictionAccuracy`
+
+### Issue 2: Predictions Validate But Don't Update Visually
+**Symptom**: Console shows validation, but tooltips still show "AWAITING VALIDATION"
+**Cause**: `_refreshPredictionDisplay` not being called or failing
+**Fix**: Check for errors in `_refreshPredictionDisplay`
+
+### Issue 3: Charts are Blank
+**Symptom**: No candles show at all
+**Cause**: Chart initialization failed
+**Fix**: Check console for "Chart has insufficient traces" errors
+
+### Issue 4: Predictions Expire Immediately
+**Symptom**: All predictions marked as "EXPIRED (no match)" after 30s
+**Cause**: Timestamp format mismatch - predictions and real candles use different formats
+**Fix**: Ensure both use `YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM:SS` UTC format
+
+## Key Files
+- `/ANNOTATE/web/static/js/chart_manager.js`:
+  - `updateLatestCandle()` - line 285 - handles new candles
+  - `_checkPredictionAccuracy()` - line 2145 - validates predictions
+  - `_refreshPredictionDisplay()` - line 2430 - updates display
+
+## Next Steps
+
+1. **Hard refresh**: `Ctrl + Shift + R`
+2. **Open Console**: F12 → Console tab
+3. **Start live training**: Click "Live Inference + Per-Candle Training"
+4. **Watch console logs**: Look for validation and refresh messages
+5. **Share console output**: Copy any errors or unexpected behavior
+
+## Expected Timeline
+
+For 1s charts:
+- T+0s: Prediction created for T+1s
+- T+1s: Real candle for T+1s arrives
+- T+2s: Validation happens (against T-1s candle)
+- T+2s: Display refreshes with accuracy
+
+For 1m charts:
+- T+0m: Prediction created for T+1m
+- T+1m: Real candle for T+1m arrives
+- T+2m: Validation happens
+- T+2m: Display refreshes with accuracy