train works
This commit is contained in:
154
README_enhanced_trading_model.md
Normal file
154
README_enhanced_trading_model.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,154 @@
|
||||
# Enhanced CNN Model for Short-Term High-Leverage Trading
|
||||
|
||||
This document provides an overview of the enhanced neural network trading system optimized for short-term high-leverage cryptocurrency trading.
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Components
|
||||
|
||||
The system consists of several integrated components, each optimized for high-frequency trading opportunities:
|
||||
|
||||
1. **CNN Model Architecture**: A specialized convolutional neural network designed to detect micro-patterns in price movements.
|
||||
2. **Custom Loss Function**: Trading-focused loss that prioritizes profitable trades and signal diversity.
|
||||
3. **Signal Interpreter**: Advanced signal processing with multiple filters to reduce false signals.
|
||||
4. **Performance Visualization**: Comprehensive analytics for model evaluation and optimization.
|
||||
|
||||
## Architecture Improvements
|
||||
|
||||
### CNN Model Enhancements
|
||||
|
||||
The CNN model has been significantly improved for short-term trading:
|
||||
|
||||
- **Micro-Movement Detection**: Dedicated convolutional layers to identify small price patterns that precede larger movements
|
||||
- **Adaptive Pooling**: Fixed-size output tensors regardless of input window size for consistent prediction
|
||||
- **Multi-Timeframe Integration**: Ability to process data from multiple timeframes simultaneously
|
||||
- **Attention Mechanism**: Focus on the most relevant features in price data
|
||||
- **Dual Prediction Heads**: Separate pathways for action signals and price predictions
|
||||
|
||||
### Loss Function Specialization
|
||||
|
||||
The custom loss function has been designed specifically for trading:
|
||||
|
||||
```python
|
||||
def compute_trading_loss(self, action_probs, price_pred, targets, future_prices=None):
|
||||
# Base classification loss
|
||||
action_loss = self.criterion(action_probs, targets)
|
||||
|
||||
# Diversity loss to ensure balanced trading signals
|
||||
diversity_loss = ... # Encourage balanced trading signals
|
||||
|
||||
# Profitability-based loss components
|
||||
price_loss = ... # Penalize incorrect price direction predictions
|
||||
profit_loss = ... # Penalize unprofitable trades heavily
|
||||
|
||||
# Dynamic weighting based on training progress
|
||||
total_loss = (action_weight * action_loss +
|
||||
price_weight * price_loss +
|
||||
profit_weight * profit_loss +
|
||||
diversity_weight * diversity_loss)
|
||||
|
||||
return total_loss, action_loss, price_loss
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
Key features:
|
||||
- Adaptive training phases with progressive focus on profitability
|
||||
- Punishes wrong price direction predictions more than amplitude errors
|
||||
- Exponential penalties for unprofitable trades
|
||||
- Promotes signal diversity to avoid single-class domination
|
||||
- Win-rate component to encourage strategies that win more often than lose
|
||||
|
||||
### Signal Interpreter
|
||||
|
||||
The signal interpreter provides robust filtering of model predictions:
|
||||
|
||||
- **Confidence Multiplier**: Amplifies high-confidence signals
|
||||
- **Trend Alignment**: Ensures signals align with the overall market trend
|
||||
- **Volume Filtering**: Validates signals against volume patterns
|
||||
- **Oscillation Prevention**: Reduces excessive trading during uncertain periods
|
||||
- **Performance Tracking**: Built-in metrics for win rate and profit per trade
|
||||
|
||||
## Performance Metrics
|
||||
|
||||
The model is evaluated on several key metrics:
|
||||
|
||||
- **Win Rate**: Percentage of profitable trades
|
||||
- **PnL**: Overall profit and loss
|
||||
- **Signal Distribution**: Balance between BUY, SELL, and HOLD signals
|
||||
- **Confidence Scores**: Certainty level of predictions
|
||||
|
||||
## Usage Example
|
||||
|
||||
```python
|
||||
# Initialize the model
|
||||
model = CNNModelPyTorch(
|
||||
window_size=24,
|
||||
num_features=10,
|
||||
output_size=3,
|
||||
timeframes=["1m", "5m", "15m"]
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
# Make predictions
|
||||
action_probs, price_pred = model.predict(market_data)
|
||||
|
||||
# Interpret signals with advanced filtering
|
||||
interpreter = SignalInterpreter(config={
|
||||
'buy_threshold': 0.65,
|
||||
'sell_threshold': 0.65,
|
||||
'trend_filter_enabled': True
|
||||
})
|
||||
|
||||
signal = interpreter.interpret_signal(
|
||||
action_probs,
|
||||
price_pred,
|
||||
market_data={'trend': current_trend, 'volume': volume_data}
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
# Take action based on the signal
|
||||
if signal['action'] == 'BUY':
|
||||
# Execute buy order
|
||||
elif signal['action'] == 'SELL':
|
||||
# Execute sell order
|
||||
else:
|
||||
# Hold position
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
## Optimization Results
|
||||
|
||||
The optimized model has demonstrated:
|
||||
|
||||
- Better signal diversity with appropriate balance between actions and holds
|
||||
- Improved profitability with higher win rates
|
||||
- Enhanced stability during volatile market conditions
|
||||
- Faster adaptation to changing market regimes
|
||||
|
||||
## Future Improvements
|
||||
|
||||
Potential areas for further enhancement:
|
||||
|
||||
1. **Reinforcement Learning Integration**: Optimize directly for PnL through RL techniques
|
||||
2. **Market Regime Detection**: Automatic identification of market states for adaptivity
|
||||
3. **Multi-Asset Correlation**: Include correlations between different assets
|
||||
4. **Advanced Risk Management**: Dynamic position sizing based on signal confidence
|
||||
5. **Ensemble Approach**: Combine multiple model variants for more robust predictions
|
||||
|
||||
## Testing Framework
|
||||
|
||||
The system includes a comprehensive testing framework:
|
||||
|
||||
- **Unit Tests**: For individual components
|
||||
- **Integration Tests**: For component interactions
|
||||
- **Performance Backtesting**: For overall strategy evaluation
|
||||
- **Visualization Tools**: For easier analysis of model behavior
|
||||
|
||||
## Performance Tracking
|
||||
|
||||
The included visualization module provides comprehensive performance dashboards:
|
||||
|
||||
- Loss and accuracy trends
|
||||
- PnL and win rate metrics
|
||||
- Signal distribution over time
|
||||
- Correlation matrix of performance indicators
|
||||
|
||||
## Conclusion
|
||||
|
||||
This enhanced CNN model provides a robust foundation for short-term high-leverage trading, with specialized components optimized for rapid market movements and signal quality. The custom loss function and advanced signal interpreter work together to maximize profitability while maintaining risk control.
|
||||
|
||||
For best results, the model should be regularly retrained with recent market data to adapt to changing market conditions.
|
Reference in New Issue
Block a user